Humanity, the planet’s smartest species for 300,000 years, is closer than ever to losing its throne to artificial intelligence (AI). According to experts, the technological “singularity” might arrive much earlier than we think.
Homo sapiens held the title of the most intelligent species on Earth for about 300,000 years. However, the rapid advancements in AI indicate that we are approaching the end of this supremacy. According to scientists, the question is no longer “if” it will happen, but “when.”
The research group AIMultiple compiled the predictions of 8,590 scientists and entrepreneurs to examine when this turning point, called the “Singularity,” might occur. The results show that experts’ forecasts are being brought forward every year.
In the mid-2010s, most researchers thought it was impossible for AI to surpass human intelligence before 2060. But today, some tech leaders say this milestone could be reached in just a few months.
What is the Singularity and Why is it Important?
In mathematics, a “singularity” refers to a point where the laws of physics break down and matter becomes infinitely dense. However, author Vernor Vinge and futurist Ray Kurzweil adapted the term to technology, giving it a completely different meaning. Today, “technological singularity” describes a period where AI surpasses human intelligence and accelerates its own development in an uncontrolled manner, a process that humans cannot oversee.
Most experts agree that the singularity is inevitable, but there is no consensus on when it will happen. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, argues in his paper “Machines of Loving Grace” that the singularity could occur as early as 2026. According to him, an AI at this level would be “smarter than a Nobel-laureate scientist in most domains” and would be able to process information “10 to 100 times faster than a human.”
Similarly, Elon Musk said in a 2024 interview, “If we define AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) as an intelligence that is smarter than the smartest human, that will probably be next year or two years from now.” Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, wrote in a 2024 post that “We are a few thousand days away from superintelligence,” placing the singularity around 2027.
Realistic or Too Optimistic?
Although these predictions sound ambitious, they are not entirely unfounded. Currently, the capacity of Large Language Models is roughly doubling every seven months. If this momentum continues, a sudden “intelligence explosion” is possible. Nevertheless, the general consensus among experts is that the singularity is still distant.
Historically, overly optimistic predictions about AI have often been proven wrong. For instance, Geoffrey Hinton, often called the “Godfather of AI,” claimed that by 2021, radiologists would no longer be needed in hospitals. Going further back, in 1965, Herbert Simon said, “Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.” At the current juncture, AI still cannot match the creativity and flexibility of the human mind. Despite this, some companies try to boost investor confidence by promoting an early singularity scenario.
When is the Real Date for the Singularity?
AIMultiple’s analysis, which blended the responses of 8,590 experts, revealed that most scientists see the singularity as about 20 years away. Accordingly, the first step will be reaching human-level General Intelligence (AGI). AGI is expected to emerge around 2040, or in the 2030s according to some investors’ forecasts.
It is thought that after this stage, AI will reach the “superintelligence” level in a very short time, initiating the singularity. Scientists estimate a 10% probability of the singularity occurring within two years of AGI‘s arrival, and a 75% probability of it happening within 30 years. Regardless of the differing opinions, the common point among experts is the same: The singularity is coming. And humanity’s reign as the planet’s most intelligent species may be in its final moments.
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